After four years with a low level of completed office buildings, the volume is now increasing substantially. In 2020, 150 000 m² of such premises will be ready and 20 per cent of this space is still unlet. The comparable figures for 2021 are 170 000 m² and 40 per cent.

The growth in supply is greatest on the eastern fringe, with 200 000 m² being completed in 2020 and 2021. Two-thirds of the volume due for completion this year and next lies in this part of Oslo. A third of that volume remains unlet, and much of it will be incorporated in the vacancy statistics during the fourth quarter (defined as vacant within 12 months).

Moves to office buildings being completed in 2020 and 2021 mean that a number of large spaces in existing premises will fall vacant. That will contribute in turn to an increased supply of offices. Among other developments, a number of large public-sector tenants have relocated from the city centre to the eastern fringe and thereby vacated premises which are ready for refurbishment and new tenants.

Source: UNION

The newbuild volume for the next two years is relatively fixed, since it normally takes 18-24 months to complete a new office building. In 2022, the only completions expected are Avantor’s Gullhaug Torg 5 in Nydalen and Fram’s Drammensveien 126 at Skøyen. These represent a net growth in supply of just 10 000 m². Only one small office building is so far definitely confirmed for completion in 2023. All the signs are therefore that developments on the supply side will be very favourable from 2022.

A gradual decline is expected in the volume of office space being converted to other purposes, from 100 000 m² at peak in 2017 to 20 000 m² in 2023. Adjusting for office space being removed from the market gives a net increase in the building inventory of 100 000 m² in 2020 and 150 000 m² in 2021. Net supply-side growth is expected to be only 10 000 m² in 2022 and 60 000 m² in 2023. We therefore expect vacancy to top out at 8.4 per cent in 2021 before declining from 2022.