After four years with low numbers of completed office buildings, the quantity is now rising substantially. New office space due to be completed during 2020 totals 150 000 m², with about 20 per cent yet to be leased. Several developers have initiated major projects without securing tenants in advance. Skanska is completing its 19 500 m² Parallell office project at Økern, for example, while the 30 000 m² OBOS Eiendom office building in Kværnerbyen will be ready during the first half of 2021. Both projects are without tenants today.

We are aware of seven newbuildings due to be ready in 2021. The two largest are Storebrand and Aspelin Ramm’s VIA project in the central business district (CBD) and Oslo Pensjonsforsikring’s Økern Portal. These represent 90 000 m² of office space between them, of which 60 per cent is leased. We expect that 180 000 m² of space will be completed in 2021, but that newbuild activity will decline to 80 000 m² the following year. No office buildings are confirmed for completion in 2022 at present, but several projects are ready to be realised if a tenant should appear.

Occupation of office buildings completed in 2020 and 2021 will free up extensive space in existing premises. That will help in turn to increase the supply of office space.

The volume of office space being converted to other purposes is expected to decline gradually, from 100 000 m² at the 2017 peak to 20 000 m² by 2022. After adjusting for office space being removed from the market, the net growth in the building inventory will be 100 000 m² in 2020 and 150 000 m² the following year. In other words, the supply side is expanding at the same time as growth in the Norwegian economy is expected to decline. We are accordingly sticking with our forecast that office vacancy will rise gradually from 2020 when the supply of space increases.