If we take a broad view, rents have remained almost entirely static since last winter. However, we expect them to resume their upward climb from next year for four reasons.

• Norwegian companies have recovered their faith in the future. Many office users are optimistic and plan to increase staffing.
• The supply of new office space is set to fall sharply over the next two years.
• Office vacancy has risen less than expected during the pandemic, in part because office-based companies have managed well but also because we are seeing a number of conversions and postponed refurbishments of existing buildings.
• Construction and customisation costs are on the way up as a result of high raw material prices, bottlenecks in global value chains and labour shortages. At the same time, we expect a number of tenants to prioritise investment in environmental measures ahead of the lowest possible rent. That will contribute to higher rents.

We therefore expect rents to rise by just over five per cent annually from 2022 to 2024. As usual, however, the market will be very differentiated. Overall vacancy in Vika, Aker Brygge, Bjørvika and the rest of the downtown area is 6.5 per cent, up by 0.3 percentage points over the past six months. Little newbuilding and a considerable willingness to pay for the best premises mean that we expect growth to be strongest in the central districts.

We are also seeing a positive trend for rents in several areas outside the city centre. Skøyen is attractive for many tenants, and centrally-located office premises are achieving high rents. Apart from Fram’s development at Drammensveien 126 (about 10 500 m²), little newbuilding is taking place in the area. Many projects have been put on ice while awaiting finalisation of the local plan, which was submitted for political consideration last April.

Nor is much newbuilding taking place west of Skøyen. Vacancy at Lysaker has halved over the past year, and is now only four per cent. No vacant office premises larger than 2 000 m² are to be found over the Lysaker tunnel, which is regarded as the most attractive part of the area. We therefore expect favourable price growth for this district.

Vacancy is high in the eastern fringe, with newbuilding activity also at an elevated level. That will discourage further rent growth. If we include all potential newbuilding projects, the area has unquestionably the highest availability. This is particularly evident at Økern, where vacancy in existing buildings is also very high.

We expect to see considerable variations in rent developments within each area. Properties with a good microlocation and a high standard will generally achieve better progress than older buildings at a long walking distance from public transport. The most important consideration is probably not whether a property is located at Lysaker, Helsfyr or Nydalen, but where it stands within its area and the standard of the building.

In other words, we anticipate that the binary division we have seen in the market during recent years will only strengthen. See the full overview of developments in each city area on our digital map.