Office vacancy bottomed out at 5.4 per cent in late 2019, and has subsequently risen to 6.4 per cent. After increasing last year, this percentage has remained relatively stable so far in 2021. We expect vacancy to reach seven per cent before falling as the supply of new space declines. That means this peak is lower than the previous estimate in February, which reflects office-based companies managing better than initially feared, more conversions and deferred refurbishment projects.

A total of 320 000 m² (gross) in new office space will be added to the market in 2020-21. The newbuilding volume is set to decline by more than 60 per cent to 120 000 m² over the next two years. Newbuilds confirmed during the past year have been fewer than expected. With a number of property owners uncertain about the future, the threshold for initiating construction has risen.

Less than 30 000 m² is due to be completed in 2022, split between three buildings. Both Fram’s newbuild at Skøyen (Thune Eureka) and Avantor’s in Nydalen (Gullhaug Torg 5) were initiated without tenants. The latter has since been leased to Crayon. The third building is Hasle Tre at Hasle, covering 3 000 m² and leased in its entirety to Save the Children.

So far, about 70 000 m² is confirmed for 2023, but we estimate that the volume will end up at about 90 000 m2. A number of office buildings are ready to go if they secure signed leases. According to Arealstatistikk, the volume of lease expiries is also expected to rise significantly in 2023. That increases the likelihood that a number of potential newbuildings could be completed during the year.

Buildings due for completion in 2023 include Aker Tech House at Fornebu. Providing no less than 30 000 m², this is a continuation of Aker’s development of the Aker Quarter and will house the innovation and technology teams being built up by the company in the IT and renewable energy sectors. Construction activity west of Skøyen has otherwise been at a standstill since Philip Pedersens vei 11 at Lysaker and Hagaløkkveien 26 in Asker were completed in 2018. That has helped to keep vacancy down in recent years.

Newbuilding activity is high in the eastern fringe. If we include all the potential newbuilding projects, this has unquestionably the greatest availability. That applies particularly to Økern, where vacancy in existing buildings is high. The Parallell and Økern Portal newbuilds account for no less than 57 per cent of vacant space in this area.