Highest return for 14 years
The total return on Norwegian commercial property in 2021 was 12.2 per cent (unleveraged). That is 2.3 percentage points above the 2020 figure, and the market has not been as strong since 2007.
While the direct return last year came to 4.3 per cent, the growth in value was 7.6 per cent. Half of that increase reflects yield compression, with the rest provided by rising market rents. This contrasts sharply with 2020, when declining yields contributed the whole growth in value.
The strongest progress was made for industrial (logistics) property. Offices delivered a slightly lower return than 2020, but still around the average for the market. The office market in Oslo was strongest outside the central business district (CBD). It was also strong in the other big cities.
Retail and hotel made weak progress in 2020, but staged a comeback in 2021. However, both segments showed a return of just under 10 per cent, which remained below the market average.
Total return in the Swedish market, moreover, was 13.4 per cent, up from 5.4 per cent in 2020.
These figures were presented on 3 March at a seminar staged by MSCI and UNION.