Little has happened to the bank margin over the past quarter, and the general picture is that it is moving sideways. The average margin in the standard case is only down a single basis point from before – in other words, to 207 bps. With one exception, all the banks report the same margin as before.

The five-year swap rate has taken a jump, so that the overall interest rate on loans is 4.42 per cent. We have to go back almost eight years to find a higher level. 

Lending rates have risen by no less than 65 bps since the fourth quarter – the biggest quarterly increase since we launched our bank survey 12 years ago.